Gold Prices Climb as Retail Slump Tempers Fed Rate Hike Bets

The cooling consumer data follows a week of encouraging inflation reports, including a soft CPI print and flat PPI figures. These indicators have pushed the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September down to roughly 33%, a sharp decline from the 50% likelihood observed just one week ago. As Treasury yields hover near 4.6% and the U.S. dollar index softens, gold has found a reliable tailwind through the interest rate channel.

Energy volatility remains a critical counterweight to this bullish momentum. Persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, marked by recent tanker attacks, continue to keep Brent crude near $88.50 per barrel. While higher energy costs introduce ongoing inflation risks that limit the potential for falling yields, the geopolitical instability simultaneously bolsters gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Traders are now shifting their attention to upcoming sentiment data to gauge whether the current economic cooling will prove durable enough to force a definitive shift in the Fed's stance.