The revised outlook reflects a cooling in safe-haven premiums that previously fueled the metal’s record-breaking run. According to the research note, the current environment lacks the immediate catalysts required for a sustained breakout. Analysts pointed to a strengthening dollar bias and a deceleration in ETF inflows as primary headwinds currently tempering the bull market.
Citigroup pares back near-term gold price expectations to $4,000
With geopolitical tensions cooling and real yields stabilizing, Citigroup strategists have lowered their three-month gold price target from $4,300 to $4,000 per ounce. The bank’s commodities research team now views immediate upside as constrained, citing a shift in market sentiment and a moderation in central bank demand.
Despite the reduction, the bank maintains a bullish horizon for the summer months. Should economic conditions deteriorate sharply or inflation pressures reignite, Citi suggests prices could reclaim momentum beyond the $4,000 threshold. The long-term forecast remains anchored at $4,500 per ounce for the 6-12 month window, a projection heavily dependent on a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve or a resurgence of global instability. While gold faces a period of consolidation, the firm continues to favor silver’s relative performance and expects industrial metals like copper and aluminum to eventually take center stage as the broader commodities cycle evolves through 2026.
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