While jewelry demand faces a projected 11% decline in 2026—following a 19% drop last year—investor appetite remains the market's bedrock. Ongoing US policy uncertainty, persistent concerns regarding the dollar’s long-term stability, and elevated geopolitical risks continue to reinforce gold’s status as a safe haven. These macroeconomic pressures are expected to keep gold’s bull run alive even as the market navigates volatility related to regional conflicts and shifting interest rate expectations.
Metals Focus Projects Gold to Hit $4,920 Record in 2026
The global gold market is bracing for a structural shift in 2026 as physical investment in bars and coins overtakes jewelry as the primary driver of demand. Despite a projected cooling in total consumption, analysts at Metals Focus expect the average annual gold price to surge 43% to a record $4,920 per ounce.
On the supply side, the industry is seeing modest expansion. Global mine production is forecast to rise 2.4% this year to 3,907 tonnes, bolstered by new mining projects and increased output across most regions. However, miners are grappling with rising expenses; all-in sustaining costs reached $1,552 per ounce in 2025, driven by inflationary pressures and higher royalties. Meanwhile, recycling is expected to grow by 5.1% in 2026, though high prices and a widespread desire to retain bullion as a hedge against economic turbulence will likely limit the volume of scrap returning to the market.
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